External Conflicts and Tensions

THE FOREIGN POLITIC OF GERMANY

A little more than 15 years after its unification, Germany has once again become a major political and military player on the world stage. This evolution is not the result of the political change of 2005. From the end of the first Gulf War in 1991, the Germans embarked on a debate on the "normalization" of their foreign policy and on the adaptation of their defense tool to the new deal. Indeed, Germany had been present in the contact group on the former Yugoslavia since 1993. It had also requested a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council during same year. Followed by the dispatch of German soldiers to Somalia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Finally, the position of the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) in favor of eastward enlargement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union is evidence of this development.

COMMERCIAL TENSIONS

Dark clouds are accumulating on the German economy. Ten days after Destatis confirmed a sharp economic slowdown in the second half of 2018, no improvement seems to be in sight in 2019. According to the German press, the government should drastically lower its growth forecasts for the current year: it is only counting on a rise in gross domestic product (GDP) of 1% in 2019, against 1.8% anticipated. Uncertainties are mainly related to Brexit, trade and China. In 2018, Germany suffered a cold snap, which reduced its growth to 1.5%, after two years of euphoria, where its GDP had grown by 2.2%.

One of the most obvious causes of this turnaround is the uncertainties associated with Brexit. In mid-January, the Federation of Industrialists (BDI) had also specified its growth projections for 2019: 1.5%, as in 2018 ... unless a "hard Brexit", which would reduce GDP growth to 1% " in the best case, "said the organization's president, Dieter Kempf, on 17 January.

Another factor of instability is China. Long regarded by economists as a stable market for Germany, the Middle Kingdom is the subject of unprecedented concern. With 6.6% growth, the Chinese economy has fallen to its lowest level in more than a quarter century. For the German industry, which is ultra-dependent on the Chinese market, these prospects are worrying. The German chip maker Infineon earns more than 1 euro out of 3 in the country. As for Volkswagen, the first German company, it makes 40% of its turnover in the Middle Kingdom.

ECONOMIC TENSIONS

Due to the trade difficulties the country is experiencing, the pace of German growth should be slowed down considerably compared to other European countries such as France.

The air hole crossed by Germany, Europe's leading economy, will weigh on all of its partners. This year, the GDP of the euro area should barely exceed 1%, the OECD forecasts, far from the 1.8% recorded in 2018. At the edge of the recession, Italy will be particularly affected: 12.5% ​​of exports from the peninsula go to Germany, its largest customer ahead of France (10.3%) .

SOURCES:

• https://www.cairn.info/revue-politique-etrangere-2007-4-page-789.htm

• https://www.lepoint.fr/automobile/l-allemagne-deja-penalisee-par-les-tensions-commerciales-22-06-2018-2229550_646.php

• https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2019/01/26/l-allemagne-abaisse-fortement-ses-previsions-de-croissance-pour-2019_5414904_3234.html

• https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2019/03/20/en-2019-le-rythme-de-la-croissance-allemande-devrait-etre-moins-rapide-que-celui-de-la-france_5438690_3234.html